Dr. Vernon Coleman: It’s Time to Prepare for Armageddon (or at least hide in the Shed): Ferguson is Back
Neil Ferguson is back with a prediction that dairy herd outbreaks of avian influenza will continue to be a significant public health challenge.
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Neil Ferguson, the man I think of as possibly the most laughably inept scientist in the world, is back with a prediction that dairy herd outbreaks of avian influenza will continue to be a significant public health challenge.
There is, inevitably, a call for urgent biosecurity interventions and targeted surveillance schemes. Doubtless there will be calls for cows to stand 12 feet apart in fields and socialising for cows will be banned completely. Cows with feathers, or those which fly around in the evenings, will be quarantined. Schools for calves will be shut.
This is what I said about Ferguson in my book `Truth Teller: The Price’:
Early in 2020, Antoinette and I realised that governments around the world were over-selling the risks associated with the coronavirus. Widely quoted predictions based on mathematical models were clearly outrageous, and everyone in government and the medical profession seemed to have forgotten that the ordinary, common or garden flu can (and does) kill many hundreds of thousands every year.
The warnings and predictions were clearly exaggerated, and the epidemiology of what was being promoted as a new and deadly plague was clearly identical to the epidemiology of the annual flu.
Neil Ferguson, the man most widely recognised as being behind the mathematical models had a terrible track record, and it was difficult to see why anyone in authority was taking any notice of his warnings. Ferguson was professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College in London and on the basis of his advice, the politicians decided we should be locked in and subjected to social distancing rules.
But this is what the Government knew about Ferguson when they decided to put their trust in him and his team:
In 2001, the Imperial team did the modelling on foot and mouth disease which led to a cull of six million sheep, pigs and cattle. The cost to the UK was around £10 billion. But the Imperial’s work has been described as ‘severely flawed’.
In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease. He said that could rise to 150,000 if sheep were involved. In the UK, the death total was 177.
In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed by bird flu. The total number of deaths was 282 worldwide. That’s 282, not 282 million.
In 2009, Ferguson and his chums at Imperial advised the Government which, relying on that advice, said that swine flu would kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK.
Finally, Ferguson admitted that his model of the covid-19 was based on undocumented 13-year-old computer code that was intended for use with an influenza epidemic.
No one seemed to question Ferguson’s work on covid-19 – despite the fact that if he was wrong again (which I believed he was) the nation would be pushed back into the Dark Ages as a result of his work.
In February and March of 2020, I questioned the claim that we were at the start of a major plague. In the early months of 2020, I started writing articles for my websites about what I called then ‘The Coronavirus Hoax’. I could see that bad things were about to happen and I knew I had to do whatever I could to share my fears with as many people as possible.
My comments (all of which were entirely accurate and based on fact) proved deeply unpopular with the medical and political establishment. Overnight, without any evidence, I was labelled as a conspiracy theorist, a discredited doctor and a danger to mankind. I believe that I was subsequently targeted more than anyone (and I know of no other doctor or author in the world who has been as completely banned as I have) and I suspect this was simply because I have a medical degree, a good deal of experience in writing and a large, global audience of loyal readers.
So, what are the odds on Ferguson being wrong again?
And, more importantly, why is anyone listening to this bozo? Why isn’t he cleaning drains and digging ditches for a living?
Ferguson, the reliable purveyor of garbage science, is, remember, also infamous for breaking his own lockdown rules.
And, curiously, Ferguson was invited to give evidence to the UK covid-19 inquiry. (It should be noted that Ferguson was invited after getting everything wrong. I got everything absolutely right and although I offered to give evidence I was ignored.)
On past history, Ferguson can be expected to provide reliably inaccurate figures which can be used to spread fear and terror, push up food prices and do further damage to the economy.
Why would anyone listen to such a man?
Actually, I’m surprised he isn’t a Scientific Adviser to the United Nations, the World Economic Forum, the World Health Organisation and the rest of the lunatics.
Maybe he is.
NOTE
Vernon Coleman’s book `Truth Teller: The Price’ is available from the bookshop on www.vernoncoleman.com – to purchase a copy just CLICK HERE
Copyright Vernon Coleman March 2025
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Thank you Lioness, for illuminating this great man's work.
Imperial College has been part or at the center of every piece of bad science, bad data, bad economic forecasting for the past 20+ years. Why does anyone even pay attention to them at this point? As soon as I learn of their involvement, I tap out.